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Missiles, Defenses, and Space
Mar 23, 2020 Securing Our Military Satellites Against Shadowing Spacecraft
Earlier, last month, General John Raymond, Chief of Space Command operations, revealed that the Russians had launched a spacecraft that shadowed an important US military satellite. Could the Russians be angling to disable key US and allied space assets? General Raymond would not say but voiced concern. "It's clear," he noted, "Russia is developing on-orbit capabilities that seek to exploit our reliance on space-based systems that fuel our American way of life."  NPEC recently held a workshop with the American Bar Association's Standing Committee on Law and National Security to dive a bit deeper. General Raymond spoke to the group and before his talk, two of the world's leading experts on co-orbital shadowing satellite threats offered their view. The first expert was Brian Chow, a space analyst; the second was Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation. Both focused on whether space keep out zones and shadow spacecraft-blocking body guard satellites might help.  France has announced its desire to create such zones and build satellite bodyguard systems. The United States has yet to support such moves. Should it? In other publications, Brian Chow says yes but there are other views and they too are worth weighing. Toward this end, the transcript below of Dr. Weeden's and Dr. Chow's discussion and two of their previous published exchanges make for interesting reading. 
Testimony & Transcripts
Mar 16, 2020 Missile Wars: What's Coming
On March 16, 2020, NPEC's Executive Director, Henry Sokolski gave the following lecture at University of California: San Diego. Missile Wars: What's Coming Since the 1970s, military theorists have predicted wars would be waged with super precise missiles that would penetrate most defenses. Recent successful missile attacks against oil facilities at Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, and Ain Assad Airbase in Iraq suggest that their predictions have come true. How real is this revolution? What new civilian and military targets might now be vulnerable that previously were not? In the case of civilian targets, such as nuclear power plants and cities, what are the moral and military considerations? This presentation will answer these questions.
Presentations; Audio & Video
Mar 13, 2020 "China's Nuclear Arms Are a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery," Foreign Policy
While our attention on China today is focused on the short-term challenge of tracking the Coronavirus, there is a long-term quandary that also deserves attention. It's China's military strategic intentions. Just what are they?  China experts have tracked Beijing's nuclear doctrine statements, their nuclear and long-range missile programs, and their space access and anti-satellite efforts. Some imterpret these developments as being malign; others chatacterize them as being defensive. Which view is more correct? We don't know. As Michael Mazza of the American Enterprise Institute and Henry Sokolski argue in the attached Foreign Policy piece, "China's Nuclear Arms Are a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery," we need to find out. In specific, Washington should engage Beijing in new strategic capabilities dialogue (not unlike the sort the United States currently conducts with Russia). For reasons we spell out in the piece, this should come before any negotiations on specific arms limits either with China or with China and any other nation. 
Op-Eds & Blogs
Oct 12, 2019 "Should Dominance Be Our Immediate Space Security Priority?," Space News
In this Space News op-ed, Brian Chow and I ask should dominance be America's immediate space security priority. Our short answer is no. Instead, the United States should tackle the weightier task of preventing Russia and China from disabling our key satellites. As we explain, Moscow and China are testing spacecraft that can damage or push our key satellites out of position. The United States, though, has not prioritized dealing with this threat, which may be realized in a few short years. The Pentagon is paying far more attention to how best to organize and equip ourselves to achieve space dominance. Brian and I argue that the United States should instead prioritize working with our closest space allies to creat what the French describe as "space exclusion zones" around our most critical satellites. The French as planning to enforce these zones by using space situational awareness assets and non-space debris producing bodyguard satellites. Brian and I are that the United States should too.
Op-Eds & Blogs
Sep 09, 2019 "The United States Should Follow France's Lead in Space," Space News
Last week, President Trump authorized the re-creation of the Air Force Space Command. Its aim is to make America great in space. In pursuit of putting America first though, it would be useful to pay attention to a smaller space faring nation -- France, which just announced its new space strategy. In the attached Space News op-ed, "The United States should follow France's lead in space," Brian Chow and I argure that the French plan is worth emulating. The French space policy calls for the development of bodyguard spacecraft.  These spacecraft would protect key satellites from possibly being attacked by robotic rendezvous spacecraft. The French also want to create space exclusion zones. Brian and I recommend that the U.S. join forces with the French. In specific, the U.S. should work with the French at the next NATO Summit this December to convince NATO to expand France's bodyguard program and to create appropriate self-defense zones around the most vulnerable, critical allied satellites. This piece, "The U.S. Should  Follow France's Lead in Space," by NPEC Executive Director, Henry Sokolski and Brian Chow, an independent policy analyst, was published in Space News.
Op-Eds & Blogs
Aug 22, 2018 Growing U.S. Satellite Vulnerability: The Silent 'Apocalypse Next'
SpaceNews publishes a new piece from NPEC's Executive Director Henry Sokolski and independent policy analyst Brian Chow on satellite security, "Growing U.S. Satellite Vulnerability: The Silent 'Apocalypse Next'"
Op-Eds & Blogs
Dec 10, 2017 How to Stop Iran's Missile Program
NPEC Executive Director and NPEC Board Member pubish a new piece in the National Interest, "How to Stop Iran's Missile Program," about multilateral options to place limits on the Iranian missile program. 
Op-Eds & Blogs
Nov 06, 2017 How to Handle South Korea's Missile Ambitions
NPEC's Executive Director and Wohlstetter Public Affairs Fellow publish a new piece in Foreign Affairs, "How to Handle South Korea's Missile Ambitions."
Op-Eds & Blogs
Sep 25, 2017 South Korea's Nuclear Capabilities, Missiles, and the Next War
Zachary Keck, NPEC Wohlstetter Public Affairs Fellow, has published two articles about nuclear weapons in South Korea. The first argues that redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea would have no military utility while also undermining alliance relations. The second one, co-authored with NPEC Research Coordinator, Leon Whyte, highlights how South Korea could use its reactor-grade plutonium to build a nuclear weapons arsenal. The first article is "4 Reasons America Shouldn't Send Nuclear Weapons to South Korea or Japan." The second article is "Can South Korea Build a Nuclear Bomb in 6 Months?" Both are posted in their entirety below. 
Op-Eds & Blogs
Oct 16, 2014 The Security Threats Nuclear-Capable Missiles Pose and How to Best Control Them
A paper presented by Alexander Savelyev at NPEC's East Asian Nuclear Future's Conference held in Singapore October 15-16, 2014.
Occasional Papers & Monographs
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founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues. NPEC educates policymakers, journalists,
and university professors about proliferation threats and possible new policies and measures to meet them.
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