On October 29, 2024, Joshua Stanton spoke to the group about the state of South Korean politics, as a part of NPEC’s November Wargame briefing series. 

Pyongyang’s Plan to Take Over Korea

North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile test today have heightened, tensions with South Korea and Japan and has stoked war fears even further . 

The conventional wisdom is that the North is poised to invade the South. In the attached lecture, Joshua Stanton, one of the nation’s most perceptive Korea-watchers, argues the threat is something different. Instead of using its military forces to occupy the South, Stanton argues Pyongyang will coerce the South to confederate on terms that will allow North Korea to dominate the relationship. 

What makes this possible, Josh argues, is the North’s influence over South Koreans who support confederation. This is a very different take on how North Korea will use its nuclear and military forces.

Part One: North Korea Aims Not to Invade the South but to dominate it, using its military might to coerce and manipulate the political scene and ultimately to confederate with the South on terms entirely advantageous to the North

Part Two: What Are the Fissures in South Korea’s Democracy?

Part Three: Pro-Pyongyang Sentiment is Mainstream in South Korea

Part Four: What Does North Korea Want and What Are South Korea’s Vulnerabilities?

Part Five: Principles of North Korea’s Joint Statements 

Part Six: Pyongyang Implements Censorship in South Korea

Part Seven: What does Pyongyang hope to achieve by pushing for a peace treaty and denuclearization?

Part Eight: Stanton’s Hypothesis