What might the next arms race look like? Assuming current nuclear trends continue, the next two decades will test America’s security and that of its closest allies as they never have been tested before. Well before 2030, the United Kingdom could find its nuclear forces eclipsed not only by those of Pakistan, but of Israel, North Korea, and India. France may share the same fate. Meanwhile, China could conceivably achieve nuclear parity in deployed nuclear weapons with the United States. Finally, highly accurate conventional missiles and drones, as well as the space-based systems and services needed to guide and defend against them are spreading both to rogue states and proxy forces. As a result, the next arms race, will be quite different than what we experienced during the Cold War.
Sixteen years ago, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, and Sam Nunn urged the world’s leaders to re-embrace the nuclear control and disarmament goals of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Reading today’s headlines, it appears their message was lost. Russia’s Defense Minister just announced Moscow […]
As the year comes to an end, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director Rafael Grossi is working to secure Ukraine’s nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia against further military assaults. His aim in shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow is to get Putin and Zelenskyy to agree to […]
Now that Ukraine has taken Kherson, some experts fear Putin might feel cornered and yet resort to using nuclear weapons. Whether Putin will, of course, is uncertain. What isn’t, and what’s deeply weird in light of this worry, is that the United States continues to […]
As the war in Ukraine drags on, daily developments at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explode on our Google News screens. Last week, external power needed to prevent a core meltdown at the plant was cut off repeatedly, forcing reliance on emergency diesel generators. Meanwhile, Russians […]
Even as the war in Ukraine rages on, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are heating up. North Korea is testing missiles at a faster rate than ever, reportedly to refine its tactical nuclear weapon capability. There’s also talk about an imminent seventh North Korean nuclear […]
Last week, on the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Biden opined that the risk of nuclear Armageddon is the highest it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis. His quip on the Ukraine war generated a flood of punditry. Earlier this week, […]
As the dust settles on the inconclusive Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, which ended last week in New York, it’s worth noting that it produced something that was quite significant. Biden, in his signed opening conference statement, closed ranks with Trump Administration officials on […]
Late last week, the United States supported calls to create a demilitarized zone around the embattled Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear site. The State Department characterized fighting there as “dangerous and irresponsible.” What no U.S. official has yet said, however, is that the United States would not mount such […]
Iran is increasingly putting Washington in a nuclear bind. On the one hand, it refuses to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor its uranium enrichment-related activities or to clarify its past suspect nuclear weapons pursuits. On the other, it has […]
When Washington worries about our government surviving against future military threats, it uses nuclear war as its benchmark. To skirt the worst, it maintains international nuclear hotlines; hardens our nation’s nuclear command, control, and warning systems; and games possible nuclear attacks, defenses, and counter strikes. […]
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