What might the next arms race look like? Assuming current nuclear trends continue, the next two decades will test America’s security and that of its closest allies as they never have been tested before. Well before 2030, the United Kingdom could find its nuclear forces eclipsed not only by those of Pakistan, but of Israel, North Korea, and India. France may share the same fate. Meanwhile, China could conceivably achieve nuclear parity in deployed nuclear weapons with the United States. Finally, highly accurate conventional missiles and drones, as well as the space-based systems and services needed to guide and defend against them are spreading both to rogue states and proxy forces. As a result, the next arms race, will be quite different than what we experienced during the Cold War.
Mr. Cohen is Associate Vice President for Research and Programs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He presented a version of this essay at NPEC’s July 2008 workshop symposium, Pakistan”s Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risks. Sep 27, 2008 AUTHOR: Craig Cohen […]
Dr. Joeck is a Senior Fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research, and served from 2004 to 2005 as Director for Counterproliferation Strategy at the National Security Council. He presented a version of this paper at NPEC’s July 2008 workshop symposium, […]
NPEC releases “Moving Toward Life in a Nuclear Armed Crowd? (1975),” by Albert Wohlstetter, et al, Co-authored by Thomas Brown, Gregory Jones, David McGarvey, Henry Rowen, Vincent Taylor and Roberta Wohlstetter, this report was filed with the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the mid-1970s. It […]
Courtesy of the private papers of Henry Sokolski, this previously unpublished note is also available on Albert Wohlstetter Dot Com, the website for NPEC’s project to highlight the continuing relevance of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter’s work Mar 25, 2008 AUTHOR: Albert Wohlstetter Nuclear_Triggers_and_Safety_Catches_the_FSU_and_the_FSRs_(1992)
This report, a version of which was filed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s predecessor, analyzes how diplomatic confusion over the terms of U.S.-India nuclear cooperation in the 1950s, 60s and 70s unwittingly facilitated India”s construction and May 1974 detonation of a nuclear explosive device. It […]
This non-paper, which outlines country-neutral criteria under which nations like India and Israel might be allowed to import controlled-nuclear goods from members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), was shared with the NSG during a meeting in South Africa in March 2007. Sep 29, 2007 […]
Dr. Fair, a South Asia and terrorism specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, presented an earlier version of this essay before an NPEC workshop dinner. This essay, also available on The Middle East Review of International Affairs’ website, examines […]
Dr. Lavoy is director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict, and senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. Jan 21, 2007 AUTHOR: Peter Lavoy Pakistans Nuclear Posture-Security and Survivability (PDF) 346.73 KB Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture: Security and Survivability […]
Dr. Shea, a senior policy advisor (nonproliferation) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, presented this essay before Assessing the IAEA’s Ability to Safeguard Peaceful Nuclear Energy, a conference held in Paris, France, and hosted by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Fondation pour la Recherche […]
Dr. Braun is a science fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Center for International Security and Cooperation (FSI-CISAC). His paper addresses prospects for expansion of current Pakistani nuclear power program, and the dangers to national safety and security such expansion entails […]
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