What might the next arms race look like? Assuming current nuclear trends continue, the next two decades will test America’s security and that of its closest allies as they never have been tested before. Well before 2030, the United Kingdom could find its nuclear forces eclipsed not only by those of Pakistan, but of Israel, North Korea, and India. France may share the same fate. Meanwhile, China could conceivably achieve nuclear parity in deployed nuclear weapons with the United States. Finally, highly accurate conventional missiles and drones, as well as the space-based systems and services needed to guide and defend against them are spreading both to rogue states and proxy forces. As a result, the next arms race, will be quite different than what we experienced during the Cold War.
September 22nd marked the 40th anniversary of a series of nuclear tests conducted off the coast of South Africa. Israel has long been suspected of being responsible for these tests. When these tests occured, the Carter administration was eager to deflect intelligence that confirmed they...
NPEC Working Paper 1602, “The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?” presents two opposed views on the threat of nuclear terrorism. Brian M. Jenkins, a Rand analyst and a leading expert on nuclear terrorism, argues that the threat is overblown. John Lauder, former director...
As speculation rises about if and when Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear program, it’s worth considering how Iran got to where it is now with its program. Iran started in earnest with its nuclear efforts by initiating a nuclear power reactor construction program at Bushehr....
In Foreign Affair’s most recent featured cover article, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb: Nuclear Balancing Would Be Stabilizing“, the author, Ken Waltz, imagines a peaceful proliferated Persian Gulf. Putting aside the improbability of the kind of automatic nuclear balance the author presumes between Israel and...
In Greg Jones’ latest evaluation of the IAEA’s May 25th Iran safeguards report, he notes that in the last six months, Iran increased its production of 3.5% enriched uranium by roughly 60%. In addition, Iran installed 1,000 new centrifuges at its fortified Fordow facility. As a result, Greg now calculates that Iran could produce a...
NPEC asked Associate Research Scholar at Princeton University and a Former Science Advisor on nonproliferation for the U.S. Department of State Scott Kemp to write a study on centrifuges. Scott explains that centrifuge technology can be fairly easily developed in a matter of 36 months...
NPEC asked Council on Foreign Relations Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow and Georgetown University assistant professor of government Matthew Kroenig to review the bidding. His take and bottom line is that such nuclear optimism always was strained, that it remains far less popular out of academe...
François Heisbourg, chairman of IISS, presented a preliminary version of this paper at a conference, “Reassessing Nuclear Nonproliferation’s Key Premises,” cohosted by NPEC and the Legatum Institute in London, Great Britain, November 3-4, 2011. Apr 04, 2012 AUTHOR: François Heisbourg Nuclear Proliferation – Looking Back...
Greg Jones: Facing the Reality of Iran as a De Facto Nuclear State NPEC Senior Researcher Greg Jones argues that Iran can produce a nuclear weapon in such a short amount of time that it should already be considered a de facto nuclear state. He...
A commentary by William Tobey shared at NPEC’s meeting, “Securing Nuclear Arsenals for the Next Half Century: What Does History Recommend?” Feb 28, 2012 AUTHOR: Willam Tobey Comments on Controlling Soviet-Russian Nuclear Weapons in Time of Inst…. (PDF) 11.20 KB Comments on the Russia Case...
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