What might the next arms race look like? Assuming current nuclear trends continue, the next two decades will test America’s security and that of its closest allies as they never have been tested before. Well before 2030, the United Kingdom could find its nuclear forces eclipsed not only by those of Pakistan, but of Israel, North Korea, and India. France may share the same fate. Meanwhile, China could conceivably achieve nuclear parity in deployed nuclear weapons with the United States. Finally, highly accurate conventional missiles and drones, as well as the space-based systems and services needed to guide and defend against them are spreading both to rogue states and proxy forces. As a result, the next arms race, will be quite different than what we experienced during the Cold War.
Late last week, the State Department caused a stir raising suspicions that the Chinese have been violating the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). There were two immediate responses: Some wanted to unsign the treaty, which would clear the way to resume nuclear testing, others pushed […]
Now that the President’s nuclear disarmament talks with Pyongyang are on the back burner, it’s worth reviewing how well Washington has generally faired in gauging the North Korean nuclear threat. Attached is such an excellent start covering the period from 1984 through 2002 by Torrey […]
Iran threatened to pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) if Germany, France, and the UK refer Tehran to the United Nations (UN) Security Council for violating the Iran nuclear deal. This announcement came on the heels of Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s complaint September 24th to the UN […]
In all competitions there are winners and losers but in some competitions who benefits most and least can get hazy as the risks that the competition forces on both parties rise. A case in point is the slow nuclear race that China has begun to […]
Four weeks ago, a fleet of highly precise, low-flying missiles struck Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, taking out five percent of the world’s oil supply. What was most significant about the attack, however, wasn’t the damage it did, but the damage it […]
In this Space News op-ed, Brian Chow and I ask should dominance be America’s immediate space security priority. Our short answer is no. Instead, the United States should tackle the weightier task of preventing Russia and China from disabling our key satellites. As we explain, […]
September 22nd marked the 40th anniversary of a series of nuclear tests conducted off the coast of South Africa. Israel has long been suspected of being responsible for these tests. When these tests occured, the Carter administration was eager to deflect intelligence that confirmed they […]
NPEC Working Paper 1602, “The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?” presents two opposed views on the threat of nuclear terrorism. Brian M. Jenkins, a Rand analyst and a leading expert on nuclear terrorism, argues that the threat is overblown. John Lauder, former director […]
As speculation rises about if and when Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear program, it’s worth considering how Iran got to where it is now with its program. Iran started in earnest with its nuclear efforts by initiating a nuclear power reactor construction program at Bushehr. […]
In Foreign Affair’s most recent featured cover article, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb: Nuclear Balancing Would Be Stabilizing“, the author, Ken Waltz, imagines a peaceful proliferated Persian Gulf. Putting aside the improbability of the kind of automatic nuclear balance the author presumes between Israel and […]
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