Ask a Washington insider what’s top on their nuclear security list and they’d answer it’s how the United States should adjust its nuclear arsenal to counter Russia’s, China’s, and North Korea’s nuclear buildup. But preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to other nations — the hot button issue of the 1970s — not so much.
That, however, is about to change.
As I argue in the attached Washington Post op-ed, “Nuclear proliferation will dominate the next president’s agenda,” now that most experts believe that Iran is only weeks away from its first nuclear weapon, the debate is no longer whether to please or squeeze Tehran not to get the bomb, but what to do the day after it does.
This will force our next President not only to focus on this question but how to keep our friends and closest allies from following the Iran’s model. This includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, South Korea, Japan, and Poland. Beyond this, the next President will need to prevent U.S. and allied nuclear trade from bolstering Chinese and Russian bomb-making.
Finally, the United States needs to toughen its stance on nuclear weapons sharing and enforcing the NPT’s requirement for Russia and China to commit to good faith nuclear arms negotiations.
As always, I’m curious to get your thoughts on the attached.
August 30, 2024
Authors: Henry Sokolski
Nuclear proliferation will dominate the next president’s agenda
Last week, the House Intelligence Committee chairman volunteered that Iran could declare itself a nuclear weapons state by the end of the year. And earlier this month, the U.S. intelligence community warned that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.’’ How quickly? Experts now say 12 weeks or less.
The mullahs might alert us or stay mum. Either way, the next president’s challenge won’t be how to prevent Iran from going nuclear but deciding what to do after it gets nuclear weapons. The next president will have to focus and take several minimal steps…
To read the full op-ed, click here.
