One of the conscious efforts of the military spacefaring community is to contract commercial space-based services to support military missions. In many ways, their aims are being realized with Starlink, Planet, Maxar, and other commercial communications and imagery providers.
These commercial systems, however, are vulnerable to military attack. Detailing these vulnerabilities and how hostile actors might hijack these systems is a key focus of NPEC’s latest volume of commissioned research (see below)—The Coming Collision of Commercial and Military Space.
The volume’s opening chapter, by Crystal Tu, examines the questionable resiliency of Taiwan’s communications systems—including their space-based assets—and how China might disrupt or disable them. This research supported a war game in which China countered Taiwan’s communications systems. The game’s after-action report can be found in the volume’s appendix.
The next four chapters include an examination of space safety zones by Melissa de Zwart, a brief on how best to defend U.S. commercial space systems by Marc Berkowitz, a review of space liability law by Christopher Johnson, and an analysis of how space conflict could draw in major powers by Brent Ziarnick.
These and the volume’s final chapters helped guide the design of another war game, which focused on proxy wars in the Middle East and the possible hijacking of commercial systems by hostile actors. The first, by Makena Burns, reviews the latest commercial space developments in the region. The second, by John Krzyzaniak, examines the future of Iran’s military and space programs. Again, the details of this game can be found in the volume’s appendix.
In addition to clarifying the space headaches ahead, the volume’s research is suggestive of several reforms the United States and its allies should pursue.
As always, I’m curious to get your take.
As Ever,
Henry S.
For a physical copy of the book, click here.
The Coming Collision of Commercial and Military Space
Edited by Henry Sokolski
September 2025
This volume is the result of two years of NPEC research and gaming designed to gauge America’s readiness to deal with the military implications of the increasing commercialization of space. The veil on this future was partially lifted with Ukraine’s military use of StarLink and Elon Musk’s unilateral decision to suspend this service. China and Russia’s “peaceful” rendezvous satellite operations and their provision of satellite targeting imagery to help the Houthis strike commercial vessels in the Red Sea, offered yet another glimpse of the future.
This volume’s seven chapters were commissioned to help clarify what commercial conjunctions with military space might demand. The research also helped NPEC prepare for two space war games. The first chapter, written by Crystal Tu, examines the resiliency of Taiwan’s communications systems. NPEC applied this chapter’s insights in the design of this volume’s first war game, which featured Chinese attacks against Taiwan’s space and ground-based communications systems.
The next four chapters were relevant to both the Taiwan-related game and a second Middle East-focused game. These include a chapter on safety zones by Melissa de Zwart, a brief on how best to defend the U.S. commercial space system by Marc Berkowitz, an examination of space liability law by Christopher Johnson, and an analysis of how space conflict can draw in major powers by Brent Ziarnick.
NPEC commissioned the last two chapters to guide the design of this volume’s second war game, which focused on proxy wars in the Middle East. The first of these, by Makena Burns, reviews the latest commercial space developments in the Middle East. The second, by John Krzyzaniak, examines the future of Iran’s military and space programs.
Together, these chapters illustrate how military and commercial space might work together and clash. American space planners hope their integration will be seamless. It won’t be. This volume and the attached games highlight some of the headaches ahead and suggest the best ways to avoid them.
To read the full book, click here. To purchase a hard copy, click here.