With New START now being implemented with Russia, it has become fashionable to push for even far deeper cuts, perhaps as low as several warheads on each side. Such low numbers, though, approach what other nuclear weapons states, such as France, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan, either have or plan to get.
How compatible are deeper U.S.-Russian reductions with the nuclear activities and plans of other states? How does Russia view the nuclear and conventional military modernization activities of China? How might the continuing military competition between Pakistan and India play out? What are the strategic nuclear dynamics between the DPRK, South Korea, Japan, and China with both their current and planned military and civilian nuclear activities? Are military nuclear competitions in the Middle East using civilian nuclear programs as covers inevitable? What beyond our current arms control and nonproliferation efforts might help address these threats?
The Next Arms Race, which is the result of a three-year project, showcases 15 research papers that tackle these questions directly.
Table of Contents
1. Overview
Henry D. Sokolski
PART I: ASIA
2. Asian Drivers of Russia’s Nuclear Force Posture
Jacob W. Kipp
3. China’s Strategic Forces in the 21st Century: The People’s Liberation Army’s Changing Nuclear Doctrine and Force Posture
Michael Mazza & Dan Blumenthal
4. Plutonium, Proliferation and Radioactive-waste Politics in East Asia
Frank von Hippel
5. China and the Emerging Strategic Competition in Aerospace Power
Mark Stokes & Ian Easton
PART II: MIDDLE EAST
6. The Middle East’s Nuclear Future
Richard L. Russell
7. Alternative Proliferation Futures for North Africa
Bruno Tertrais
8. Casting a Blind Eye: Kissinger and Nixon Finesse Israel’s Bomb
Victor Gilinsky
PART III: SOUTH ASIA
9. Nuclear Weapons Stability or Anarchy in the 21st Century: China, India, and Pakistan
Thomas W. Graham
10. Nuclear Missile-Related Risks in South Asia
R.N. Ganesh
11. Prospects for Indian and Pakistani Arms Control
Feroz Hassan Khan
PART IV: POST-COLD WAR MILITARY SCIENCE AND ARMS CONTROL
12. To What Extent Can Precision Conventional Technologies Substitute for Nuclear Weapons?
Stephen J. Lukasik
13. Missiles for Peace
Henry D. Sokolski
14. Missile Defense and Arms Control
Jeff Kueter
15. A Hardheaded Guide to Nuclear Controls
Henry D. Sokolski
- Published by: The Strategic Studies Institute Publications Office, United States Army War College
- Edited by NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski – 2012