Three years after The Washington Post first released photos of China’s construction of more than 300 nuclear missile silos and the Pentagon forecasted China would have at least 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, our government is still pondering what it should do. Meanwhile, Russia has been developing entirely new nuclear weapons systems—hypersonic nuclear-armed missiles, nuclear anti-satellite weapons, and long-range nuclear torpedoes.
Sure, the Pentagon is modernizing America’s nuclear bombers, submarines, and missiles. But that was decided back in 2010, as part of the approval of New START. It also won’t be enough.
Indeed it will take considerably more.
As I argue in the attached article, “Nuclear Math,” that American Purpose just published, the United States must adjust its nuclear strategy not to out gun our enemies, but to make sure our enemies can never destroy our strategic assets.
Beyond this, the United States and its allies need to push a much more aggressive set of nuclear control initiatives. In specific, we need to focus on the one threat Xi and Putin fear — that the United States might deploy more nuclear weapons in NATO, South Korea, and Japan. An ideal place to push this diplomatic agenda is the international meetings leading up to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference that will be held in early 2026 in New York.
The specifics on both these points are explored in the piece.
June 25, 2024
Authors: Henry Sokolski
Nuclear Math
Three years after The Washington Post first released photos of China’s construction of more than 300 nuclear missile silos and the Pentagon forecasted China would have at least 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, our government is still pondering what it should do. Meanwhile, Russia has been developing entirely new nuclear weapons systems—hypersonic nuclear-armed missiles, nuclear anti-satellite weapons, and long-range nuclear torpedoes. Sure, the Pentagon is modernizing America’s nuclear bombers, submarines, and missiles. But that was decided back in 2010, as part of the approval of New START. It also won’t be enough.
Matching China and Russia’s nuclear expansion goals missile-for-nuclear missile, warhead-for nuclear warhead, (much less staying ahead of them), would require a tripling or more of America’s current nuclear deployments of 1,770 nuclear weapons.
To read the full op-ed, click here.